World Cup 2026 Group I preview: France, Norway, Senegal & Iraq — with a Toronto host match

Group I is one of the tournament’s more loaded sections: a title favourite, the world’s most lethal striker, the African champions, and an emotional debutant-after-decades — plus a fixture on Canadian soil. Here’s the group team by team, the Toronto host match, and how it’s priced. It pairs with our title favourites analysis and the main World Cup betting guide.

France — the heavy favourite

France arrive as one of the clear favourites to win the whole tournament, and they’re the runaway favourite to top Group I at around -235. Loaded with depth and coming off a pair of statement results in March, they’re chasing a deep run in what coach Didier Deschamps has confirmed is his final tournament in charge — he’s looking to add a second World Cup as manager to the one he won in 2018. We cover France in full in our title favourites analysis; in the group context, they’re expected to win it at a canter, which makes their matches more about margin, totals and player props than about the result itself.

Norway — Haaland and the second-place pick

Norway are the headline story of the group’s lower half: back at a World Cup for the first time in 28 years, powered by Erling Haaland, with Alexander Sørloth and Antonio Nusa giving them multiple ways to create danger. Priced around +280 for the group, they’re the favourites to finish second on the strength of the highest attacking ceiling outside France. Haaland’s presence also makes Norway’s matches a focal point for the golden boot market we cover in our futures guide — though, as we note there, a striker needs his team to go deep to win it.

Senegal — the African champions

Senegal arrive as reigning AFCON champions with the talent to go deep. Sadio Mané’s leadership and big-stage experience continue to drive the side, and a squad full of players from Europe’s top leagues gives them the quality to trouble anyone. Priced around +800 for the group and projected third, they’re better than that slot suggests and could well put up a fight for second. AFCON pedigree travels: a side that has recently won its continental championship arrives battle-tested in a way a long-absent qualifier like Norway hasn’t been, and that tournament hardness is exactly the kind of edge the third-place price may be underrating.

Iraq — the emotional returnees

Iraq return to the World Cup for the first time since 1986, having punched their ticket with a win over Bolivia in a play-off, and they carry the emotion of a nation that waited four decades. Under coach Graham Arnold, they’re organised, physical and disciplined, with enough creativity between Zidane Iqbal and Ali Al Hamadi to threaten in transition. Priced around +4000 to win the group, they’re the outsiders — but the kind no one will enjoy playing. For a nation that waited 40 years, simply being here is the headline; for a bettor, their discipline and motivation make them a poor team to underestimate in the low-scoring, tight matches they’ll aim to engineer.

The Toronto host match: Senegal vs Iraq, June 26

For Ontario and Canadian fans, the group’s home-soil fixture is Senegal vs Iraq at Toronto’s BMO Field on June 26, 2026 — and it’s more meaningful than the headline names might suggest. This is likely a match with real qualification stakes: by the final round, Senegal could be fighting for a knockout place, and Iraq will be desperate to mark their return with a result, which tends to make for an open, motivated contest.

For a Toronto-based bettor, it’s a chance to watch Sadio Mané and an AFCON-winning side live, against an Iraq team carrying the emotional charge of a 40-year wait — the kind of human storyline that makes a “lesser” fixture compelling. The betting markets will be deep at every licensed Ontario sportsbook: match result, both teams to score, totals, and player props on Senegal’s European-based stars, plus live in-play betting as the qualification maths plays out in real time. If you’re attending at BMO Field, the betting-access rules from our Toronto and Vancouver guide apply — bet via a licensed mobile app while physically in Ontario, with iGO apps geofenced to the province. It’s a genuinely Canadian-specific watch: a World Cup match, in Toronto, with stakes — exactly the kind of fixture US and UK coverage will skip past and local fans will pack out.

How the group is priced

As of June 1, 2026, Group I reads France clear at the top (-235), Norway the second-place favourite (+280), with Senegal (+800) a live threat projected third and Iraq (+4000) the outsider. The interesting markets aren’t “who wins the group” — that’s France’s — but to advance (where Norway, Senegal and even a best-third-placed Iraq all have routes under the 48-team format) and the individual match lines, especially anything involving Haaland or Mané. We describe the market; the call is yours.

The race for second: Norway, Senegal and a stubborn Iraq

France topping the group is close to a formality, so the betting interest sits below them — and it’s a genuine three-way question. Norway (+280) are the second-place favourites on the strength of Haaland and the best attacking ceiling outside France; they can blow a game open, but they’re also relatively untested at this level after a 28-year absence. Senegal (+800), the AFCON champions, are arguably underrated at third — a deeper, more battle-hardened squad than the price implies, and a real threat to leapfrog Norway. Iraq (+4000) are the outsiders, but Graham Arnold’s organised, physical side won’t be a free three points for anyone.

For a bettor, the markets that matter are to advance and the Norway–Senegal head-to-head, with the 48-team format’s eight best third-placed qualifiers meaning even the team that finishes third here has a live route to the knockouts. That’s a meaningful wrinkle in a strong group: a third-placed Senegal or Norway could easily out-point group winners from weaker sections. We describe the shape of the market; the read is yours, and the Norway and Senegal prices are where the genuine debate lives.

Storylines to watch

Whether France cruise as expected in Deschamps’ farewell, whether Haaland can pile up goals to chase the golden boot, whether Senegal out-perform their third-place projection, and whether Iraq can make their return memorable. For where to bet legally, see our best Ontario sportsbooks for the World Cup, and for Canada’s group, the Group B preview.

Bet responsibly

A loaded group with star names makes every match tempting to bet — which is what makes it easy to bet too many. Set a budget before the tournament and keep it entertainment.

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